The price of finished males could reach R$/@ 400 by the end of 2026, which would represent a significant rise of around 30% compared to the little over R$/@ 300 currently paid for cattle in São Paulo. The projection was made by analyst Felipe Fabbri, from Scot Consultoria, on the program Mercado Pecuário.
According to the specialist, tighter cattle supply, stronger domestic demand in an election year, and even the effect of the World Cup, which will take place in North America in 2026, could sustain this upward trend.
Fabbri also emphasized that the current moment brings opportunities for cattle producers. He believes 2025 may represent the last window to buy calves at more moderate prices, taking advantage of the fact that the replacement ratio is still favorable.
The expectation is that in the coming years, prices will be higher, driven by female retention because of a phase shift in the cattle cycle, which will fully enter a retention period.
“This may be the last moment of a more moderate premium (for feeder cattle). Today’s calf pays off thinking ahead to 2026,” said Fabbri.
